Countries worldwide have a major opportunity in the coming months to develop clear plans for significantly boosting renewable power and help achieve the global goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030, according to a new analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA report, “COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking Countries’ Ambitions and identifying policies to bridge the gap”, found that while renewable power is crucial for meeting international energy and climate goals, very few countries have explicitly set 2030 targets for installed renewable capacity in their existing climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
The official commitments in current NDCs amount to just 1,300 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity by 2030 – only 12% of what is required to meet the global tripling objective agreed at COP28 in Dubai.
However, the IEA’s country-by-country analysis covering nearly 150 nations found that governments’ domestic ambitions are much more ambitious, corresponding to almost 8,000 GW of global installed renewable capacity by 2030.
This means that if countries were to include all their existing policies, plans and estimates in their new and updated NDCs due next year, they would reflect around 70% of what is needed by 2030 to reach the tripling goal, which corresponds to 11,000 GW of installed renewable capacity worldwide.
“At COP28, nearly 200 countries pledged to triple the world’s renewable power capacity this decade, which is one of the critical actions to keep alive hopes of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This report makes clear that the tripling target is ambitious but achievable – though only if governments quickly turn promises into plans of action.”
Birol added that by delivering on the goals agreed at COP28, including tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, countries have a major opportunity to accelerate progress towards a more secure, affordable and sustainable energy system.
The report highlights that the amount of renewable capacity added globally each year has tripled since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, largely thanks to policy support, economies of scale and technological progress that have driven down the costs of solar PV and wind by over 40%.
However, key challenges still remain, such as lengthy wait times for project permits, inadequate investment in grid infrastructure, the need to quickly and cost-efficiently integrate variable renewables, and high financing costs, especially in emerging and developing economies.
The IEA proposes targeted actions that countries can take to address these obstacles, including improving long-term policy visibility, supporting projects in the pre-development phase, and reducing price, inflation and exchange rate risks to improve the bankability of renewable projects.
“The IEA will continue to support governments around the world in efforts to achieve this,” Birol said.
Report by IEA
Photo by Nuno Marques
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